After a sluggish start to the 2026 monsoon season, rainfall activity across India has picked up significantly, bringing relief to farmers and easing concerns over the country’s overall rainfall deficit. However, the recovery remains uneven, and the emergence of El Niño could pose a fresh challenge in the months ahead.
August has brought a notable turnaround in rainfall. Delhi, in particular, recorded exceptionally heavy rain during the first week of the month and crossed its average rainfall for the entire month within just the first eight days. The heavy showers also affected several other parts of the country, with rainfall reported across more than a dozen states.
India’s Rainfall Deficit Narrows
According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the improvement in monsoon activity has helped bring down India’s cumulative rainfall deficit to 11% as of August 7.
The improved rainfall has also provided a boost to Kharif sowing. Data from the Ministry of Agriculture shows that the shortfall in Kharif crop sowing had narrowed to 17.96 lakh hectares by August 7. This is a significant improvement from the 38.82 lakh hectare deficit recorded on July 24 compared with the previous year.
Pulse cultivation has also shown a recovery. The gap in the area under major pulse crops fell to around 1.95 lakh hectares, compared with 6.90 lakh hectares two weeks earlier.
However, rice and oilseed cultivation continues to lag behind last year’s levels. Rice sowing was down by around 15.90 lakh hectares, while the shortfall in oilseed sowing increased to 5.19 lakh hectares as of August 7.
Rainfall Remains Uneven Across Regions
Despite the broader improvement, several parts of the country continue to face rainfall shortages. East and Northeast India have recorded the largest regional deficit, with cumulative rainfall around 25.5% below normal.
This is particularly significant for agriculture because many crops in these regions depend heavily on monsoon rainfall. Rice, which requires substantial water during the early stages of cultivation, has been especially affected by the rainfall deficit.
Experts are hoping that continued rainfall in August, particularly across eastern parts of the country, will help bridge the remaining gap and support Kharif production targets.
More Rain Expected in Several Regions
The weather outlook could provide some additional relief. Low-pressure systems developing over the Bay of Bengal are expected to bring heavy rainfall to parts of central, western and eastern India.
If these weather systems produce widespread rainfall, they could further reduce the national rainfall deficit and improve agricultural conditions in areas that have so far received below-normal precipitation.
El Niño Threat Looms Ahead
Despite the recent improvement, weather experts remain concerned about the longer-term outlook.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has warned of risks linked to a developing El Niño during the August-October period. The climate phenomenon can disrupt normal weather patterns and increase the possibility of drier-than-normal conditions across parts of the Indian subcontinent.
The WMO has also warned of a high likelihood of above-average temperatures over land, which could increase heat stress on crops and put additional pressure on agricultural production.
Adding to the complexity is the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) alongside El Niño. Changes in ocean temperatures associated with these climate patterns can influence rainfall across South Asia and potentially intensify dry conditions.
What It Means for India
For now, the revival of monsoon rainfall is a positive development for India’s agriculture, water resources and rural economy. The improvement in Kharif sowing indicates that farmers are already benefiting from the increased rainfall.
However, the uneven distribution of rain means the monsoon situation remains far from normal across the entire country. With El Niño strengthening and the possibility of hotter and drier conditions later in the season, farmers and policymakers may need to prepare for renewed weather-related challenges.
The coming weeks will therefore be crucial. Continued rainfall could help India recover further from the early-season deficit, while a prolonged dry spell could once again put pressure on crops, water availability and food prices.
